Forecasting the future is a difficult path to tread. Predictions are often met with a healthy dose of cynicism, and there is no lack of critics if your carefully calculated forecasts turn out to be wrong. And yet people crave to know what the future holds. Despite its perils, forecasting is one of the most interesting parts of my job, and why I love being an analyst.
The basic premise of forecasting is that stuff happens in repeatable patterns. By looking at historical trends of what has happened in the past, it’s possible to predict what will happen in the future. Therefore, if March has been the biggest month of the year for ISA searches for the last three years (and it has) then it makes sense that next March will be the biggest month for ISA searches in 2013. (more…)